-------------------------------------------------------------------------- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO NWS Forecast for: 4 Miles SSE Ouray CO Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Junction, CO Tonight: Scattered snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40% Saturday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before noon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 28. West wind between 5 and 15 mph Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 57. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph Monday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 59 Monday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20% Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 49 Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26 Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56 Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32 Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59 Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34 Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 65 Point Forecast: 4 Miles SSE Ouray CO 38.04N -107.66W (Elev. 10381 ft) Visit your local NWS office at: [3]http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt References 1. http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=Last+update 2. javascript:window.print() 3. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt -------------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES AND WARNINGS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 309 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM ABOUT RAWLINS WY TO JUST EAST OF VERNAL UT THEN TRAILS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT AROUND 2 PM. THE MORNING GJT SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOWING RATHER DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW. RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING ALOT OF RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THESE ARE HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR. MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS PRIMARILY TO OCCUR RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. COMBINATION OF UPPER JET SUPPORT AND FRONTAL FORCING WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL YIELD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9K FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE THESE AREAS EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL. LITTLE CHANCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW TODAYS LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... RIDGE AXIS AT UPPER LEVELS SHIFTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS EASTERN UT LATE MONDAY AND DIGS TO THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY MORNING. EC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE EC KEEPS THIS SYSTEM EAST BUT THE GFS RETROGRADES THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HELP COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS... OTHERWISE THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. &&
